June 8, 2008

Enough With the "18 Million" Already!

OK, that's it; I've had enough.  I've been a good little concerned American watching enough cable news to have my brain permanently wired; I've waited for tardy politicians to arrive for important speeches; I've listened to both Dianne Feinstein and Patrick J. Buchanan with equal deference; my natural inner timing has altered so that I awake each morning in time to watch "Morning Joe"; I track major news sources on the Internet, and find additional, not-so-major sources by reading through inane comments to articles on Huffington Post and Politico.com ― but this weekend, I hit the deal-breaker.

Hillary made a nice concession speech this Saturday.  Of course, it was five days late.  And, of course, it was pointed out that she "needed the time" to adjust, to make the pivot from running to conceding, to digest events, etc. ― as if Obama's victory, and her loss, on Tuesday was a bolt out of the blue.  Someone could have pointed out that every other politician (not to mention the media) saw this Obama victory coming weeks, if not months, ago ― but if someone had said that, then it probably would have been an insensitive and sexist attack, I suppose.

But Hillary insisted on mentioning in what was otherwise a good speech her "18 million" supporters, the 18 million votes that by implication are so vital to an Obama victory in the fall.

And her people on various news shows throughout the weekend continued to refer to the 18 million supporters that Hillary can bring to the ticket if Barack Obama picks her as his vice-presidential running mate.

Enough!

To say that Hillary got 18 million votes during the primary and caucuses is true.  To say that she put 18 million cracks in the glass ceiling is a fair reading of the results, a gratifying outcome to contemplate, and a fact to be repeated often, especially to young women.  To say that she brings 18 million votes to the table, however, is not true.  Rather, it is a not very subtle bending of fact.

Take a look at Real Clear Politics, where the popular votes are tallied.  There you will see that Hillary's total actually hits 18 million if you count Michigan (where she ran virtually unopposed) and estimates of caucus totals.

Consider the total vote outcome of the following 14 contests.

In the table above are nearly six million Hillary votes that have no bearing on the General Election.  These are votes that she received in:

This brings Hillary's clout down to 12 million ― but wait, there is more.

Exit polling has generally shown that 60% or more of Hillary's supporters said they would vote for Obama if he won ― and vice versa.  Given that things have gotten so heated as we approached the end of the primary season, let's round that down to 50%.  Barack Obama should be able to count on at least six million of the remaining 12 million Hillary votes, given that they are Democrats who would never vote in a million years for a conservative from Arizona who has consistently voted against increasing the minimum wage, who opposes health care reform, who by his own admission has little knowledge of the economy, and who desires for Iraq not an end to war, but, rather, his vision of a longer and somehow more efficient war.

Of Hillary's remaining six million votes, knock off one million who will not, under any circumstances, vote for Barack Obama.  Hillary can tell them; Jesus Christ can come down from Heaven and tell them: there is no way that they are going to vote for an African-American.

That leaves five million.  What of them?  Some of them will take a good look at John McCain and shudder.  Some of them will need a few days, or a few weeks, or a few months to calm down.  Some of them will need a visit from one of numerous Obama surrogates, say someone like Hillary, giving a good stump speech, extolling Barack Obama's virtues, urging them to support and vote for the Democratic standard bearer who, from the Democrats' perspective, is immeasurably preferable to John McCain.  That is the sort of thing that should be expected of all good Democrats during these five months ― yes, even those who have no chance whatsoever of being called upon to be Barack Obama's running mate.